Stratovolcano โข Costa Rica, Costa Rica
Unlikely in any given year
Arenal erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~39 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2010.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
2.6%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~39y
recurrence
10.463ยฐ, -84.703ยฐ ยท Costa Rica ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
2.6%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~39y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 39 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
2 eruptions over ~6996 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.4โ4.6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 1
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
2 eruptions over ~6996 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,670m
Elevation
2010
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
12 km SW of Pocosol, Costa Rica
79.3km deep โข 20km away
24 km NW of La Fortuna, Costa Rica
139.1km deep โข 21km away
9 km NNE of Tilarรกn, Costa Rica
10.0km deep โข 27km away
21 km ESE of Bijagua, Costa Rica
7.1km deep โข 29km away
17 km ESE of Bijagua, Costa Rica
10.0km deep โข 32km away
17 km ESE of Bijagua, Costa Rica
10.0km deep โข 34km away
4 km NNE of Quesada, Costa Rica
117.2km deep โข 34km away
14 km SE of Upala, Costa Rica
167.1km deep โข 45km away
13 km SE of Upala, Costa Rica
170.6km deep โข 45km away
11 km S of Pital, Costa Rica
104.4km deep โข 50km away
3 km ESE of San Juan, Costa Rica
17.5km deep โข 62km away
15 km E of Rรญo Segundo, Costa Rica
10.0km deep โข 63km away
Coordinates
10.4630ยฐN, -84.7030ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Arenal erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Arenal's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 39 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Arenal's most recent known eruption was 2010 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Arenal is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Costa Rica, Costa Rica, rising to 1,670 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Arenal and roughly 1,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Arenal is located in Costa Rica, Costa Rica, at 10.463ยฐ, -84.703ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,670 m.