Stratovolcano โข Izu Islands, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Aogashima erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~31 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1785.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.2%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~31y
recurrence
32.458ยฐ, 139.762ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
3.2%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~31y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 31 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
7 eruptions over ~3585 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.8โ5.6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
7 eruptions over ~3585 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
423m
Elevation
1785
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
256 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
114.9km deep โข 12km away
272 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
104.5km deep โข 24km away
270 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
145.1km deep โข 28km away
285 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
133.1km deep โข 28km away
233 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
94.9km deep โข 39km away
239 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
143.7km deep โข 40km away
284 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
92.6km deep โข 44km away
219 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
141.6km deep โข 52km away
296 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
98.0km deep โข 53km away
255 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
29.7km deep โข 57km away
253 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
94.9km deep โข 57km away
Izu Islands, Japan region
95.8km deep โข 60km away
Coordinates
32.4580ยฐN, 139.7620ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Aogashima erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Aogashima's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 31 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Aogashima's most recent known eruption was 1785 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Aogashima is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Izu Islands, Japan, rising to 423 m.
About 500 people live within 30 km of Aogashima and roughly 5,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Aogashima is located in Izu Islands, Japan, at 32.458ยฐ, 139.762ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 423 m.