Stratovolcano โข Northern Kurils, Russia
Unlikely in any given year
Alaid erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 9.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~10 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2022.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
9.4%
1-year
0.8%
30-day
~10y
recurrence
50.861ยฐ, 155.565ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
9.4%
1-year probability
0.8%
30-day
~10y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 10 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
17 dated eruptions over ~232 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.4% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 6.8โ12.9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
17 dated eruptions over ~232 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,339m
Elevation
2022
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
49 km WNW of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
150.2km deep โข 5km away
13 km N of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
112.1km deep โข 42km away
65 km WSW of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
142.6km deep โข 45km away
29 km NNE of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
141.7km deep โข 48km away
40 km N of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
126.4km deep โข 50km away
5 km ESE of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
93.8km deep โข 50km away
49 km SW of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
141.8km deep โข 55km away
34 km SSW of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
118.0km deep โข 56km away
12 km E of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
103.4km deep โข 56km away
13 km E of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
137.0km deep โข 56km away
38 km NNE of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
148.0km deep โข 57km away
80 km WSW of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
140.4km deep โข 63km away
Coordinates
50.8610ยฐN, 155.5650ยฐE
Region
Kuril Islands
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Alaid erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Alaid's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 9.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 10 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Alaid's most recent known eruption was 2022 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Alaid is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Northern Kurils, Russia, rising to 2,339 m.
About 5,000 people live within 30 km of Alaid and roughly 15,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Alaid is located in Northern Kurils, Russia, at 50.861ยฐ, 155.565ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,339 m.