Stratovolcano โข Central Andes, Peru
Unlikely in any given year
Ubinas erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 8.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~12 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2019.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
8.1%
1-year
0.7%
30-day
~12y
recurrence
-16.355ยฐ, -70.903ยฐ ยท Peru ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
8.1%
1-year probability
0.7%
30-day
~12y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 12 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
28 dated eruptions over ~10584 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~0.3% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 5.8โ11.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
28 dated eruptions over ~10584 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
5,672m
Elevation
2019
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
11 km SW of Ubinas, Peru
129.4km deep โข 14km away
13 km SW of Matalaque, Peru
116.4km deep โข 22km away
20 km E of Chiguata, Peru
134.7km deep โข 33km away
21 km ENE of Chiguata, Peru
106.2km deep โข 36km away
26 km ENE of Lloque, Peru
60.4km deep โข 43km away
9 km SSW of Quinistaquillas, Peru
94.6km deep โข 52km away
3 km SW of La Capilla, Peru
24.9km deep โข 57km away
14 km SE of La Capilla, Peru
130.4km deep โข 59km away
2 km SSE of Quequeรฑa, Peru
90.3km deep โข 63km away
11 km ESE of Carumas, Peru
10.7km deep โข 63km away
19 km SSE of Quequeรฑa, Peru
129.6km deep โข 65km away
19 km NNE of Cono Norte, Peru
122.5km deep โข 66km away
Coordinates
-16.3550ยฐN, -70.9030ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ubinas erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ubinas's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 8.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 12 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ubinas's most recent known eruption was 2019 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ubinas is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Central Andes, Peru, rising to 5,672 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Ubinas and roughly 1,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ubinas is located in Central Andes, Peru, at -16.355ยฐ, -70.903ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 5,672 m.