Stratovolcano โข North Island, New Zealand
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Tongariro in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 24.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~4 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2012.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
24.7%
1-year
2.3%
30-day
~4y
recurrence
-39.134ยฐ, 175.642ยฐ ยท New Zealand ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
24.7%
1-year probability
2.3%
30-day
~4y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 4 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
79 dated eruptions over ~11862 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~1.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 18.3โ32.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
79 dated eruptions over ~11862 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,978m
Elevation
2012
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
4 km SSW of Turangi, New Zealand
125.6km deep โข 17km away
38 km NNW of Waiouru, New Zealand
93.7km deep โข 19km away
14 km ESE of Turangi, New Zealand
99.1km deep โข 27km away
North Island of New Zealand
84.2km deep โข 32km away
13 km NNE of Turangi, New Zealand
100.7km deep โข 34km away
19 km NNW of Turangi, New Zealand
124.9km deep โข 36km away
23 km NNW of Turangi, New Zealand
4.6km deep โข 38km away
20 km SW of Taupo, New Zealand
5.4km deep โข 43km away
41 km ENE of Waiouru, New Zealand
60.7km deep โข 46km away
13 km SW of Taupo, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 49km away
58 km WNW of Turangi, New Zealand
234.8km deep โข 51km away
12 km WSW of Taupo, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 53km away
Coordinates
-39.1340ยฐN, 175.6420ยฐE
Region
New Zealand to Fiji
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Tongariro in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Tongariro's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 24.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 4 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Tongariro's most recent known eruption was 2012 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Tongariro is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in North Island, New Zealand, rising to 1,978 m.
About 30,000 people live within 30 km of Tongariro and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Tongariro is located in North Island, New Zealand, at -39.134ยฐ, 175.642ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,978 m.