Stratovolcano โข Ryukyu Islands, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Suwanosejima erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 9.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~10 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
9.4%
1-year
0.8%
30-day
~10y
recurrence
29.638ยฐ, 129.714ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
9.4%
1-year probability
0.8%
30-day
~10y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 10 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
27 dated eruptions over ~426 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.4% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 6.8โ12.9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
27 dated eruptions over ~426 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
796m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
95 km SW of Kurio, Japan
10.0km deep โข 3km away
104 km SW of Kurio, Japan
8.4km deep โข 6km away
91 km SW of Kurio, Japan
10.1km deep โข 7km away
105 km SW of Kurio, Japan
10.0km deep โข 8km away
88 km SW of Kurio, Japan
10.0km deep โข 10km away
107 km SW of Kurio, Japan
10.0km deep โข 11km away
95 km SW of Kurio, Japan
10.0km deep โข 15km away
86 km SW of Kurio, Japan
35.0km deep โข 15km away
81 km SW of Kurio, Japan
78.5km deep โข 19km away
104 km SW of Kurio, Japan
156.1km deep โข 22km away
110 km SW of Kurio, Japan
161.2km deep โข 25km away
103 km N of Tatsugล, Japan
10.0km deep โข 33km away
Coordinates
29.6378ยฐN, 129.7139ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Suwanosejima erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Suwanosejima's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 9.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 10 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Suwanosejima's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Suwanosejima is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Ryukyu Islands, Japan, rising to 796 m.
About 1,000 people live within 30 km of Suwanosejima and roughly 10,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Suwanosejima is located in Ryukyu Islands, Japan, at 29.638ยฐ, 129.714ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 796 m.