Stratovolcano โข Sulawesi, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Soputan in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 11.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~8 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2018.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
11.6%
1-year
1%
30-day
~8y
recurrence
1.112ยฐ, 124.737ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
11.6%
1-year probability
1%
30-day
~8y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 8 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
41 dated eruptions over ~570 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 8.4โ15.9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
41 dated eruptions over ~570 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,784m
Elevation
2018
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
27 km SSW of Tomohon, Indonesia
120.8km deep โข 4km away
29 km S of Tomohon, Indonesia
138.7km deep โข 9km away
Minahasa, Sulawesi, Indonesia
134.2km deep โข 18km away
Minahasa, Sulawesi, Indonesia
22.5km deep โข 25km away
27 km SSE of Tondano, Indonesia
122.1km deep โข 31km away
30 km W of Tomohon, Indonesia
179.2km deep โข 31km away
32 km WNW of Tomohon, Indonesia
228.0km deep โข 38km away
Minahasa, Sulawesi, Indonesia
43.9km deep โข 40km away
39 km W of Tomohon, Indonesia
207.9km deep โข 42km away
32 km SE of Tondano, Indonesia
35.0km deep โข 45km away
67 km WSW of Tomohon, Indonesia
219.2km deep โข 52km away
63 km WSW of Tomohon, Indonesia
14.6km deep โข 53km away
Coordinates
1.1120ยฐN, 124.7370ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Soputan in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Soputan's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 11.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 8 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Soputan's most recent known eruption was 2018 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Soputan is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Sulawesi, Indonesia, rising to 1,784 m.
About 200,000 people live within 30 km of Soputan and roughly 1,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Soputan is located in Sulawesi, Indonesia, at 1.112ยฐ, 124.737ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,784 m.