Stratovolcano โข Cagayan Valley, Philippines
Uninhabited volcanic island in Babuyan Channel.
Very unlikely near-term
Smith has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~100 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1924.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories. How this is calculated โ
1.9%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~100y
recurrence
19.540ยฐ, 121.915ยฐ ยท Philippines ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
Cagayan, Cagayan Valley ยท Stratovolcano
very low confidenceยท 0 stationsยท no hazard map
๐ General awareness sufficient.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Activity level 2/3
b=0.70 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=196
No significant indicators.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
Activity level 2/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
b = 0.7 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=196
Low b-value (0.70) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
Status-based estimate (~1 per 100 yr)
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
Alert Level 0
No significant unrest โ eruption not expected in the near term.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
Recurrence interval not well constrained
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
No eruptions in the last 10 years.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
2 events within 15 km ยท 0.2/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Detailed instrument readouts
Normal โ no significant unrest
0.70 ยฑ 0.05
Mc 2.2 ยท n=196
Low b-value (0.70) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
841
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
2
<5km deep
2
<15km away
0.2
ev/day
Smithsonian GVP eruption frequency โ about one eruption every ~100 years.
Normal โ no significant unrest reported.
Product of b-value, depth migration, acceleration, triggering & swarm signals.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โModeled from PHIVOLCS alert level + live seismicity + eruption history. See the Risk Analysis dashboard for all volcanoes side by side.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
688m
Elevation
1924
Last Eruption
Stratovolcano
Type
โ
Recorded Eruptions
~100y
Avg. Recurrence
1924
Last Eruption
Baseline eruption rate derived from Smithsonian GVP confirmed-eruption frequency. Current eruption probability (incorporating PHIVOLCS alert level and live seismicity) is on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
2.0km deep โข 8km away
BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
7.0km deep โข 10km away
014 km S 71ยฐ W of Babuyan Island (Calayan) (Cagayan)
9.0km deep โข 15km away
BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
18.0km deep โข 16km away
BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
2.0km deep โข 16km away
020 km N 31ยฐ W of Babuyan Island (Calayan) (Cagayan)
12.0km deep โข 17km away
BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
9.0km deep โข 21km away
018 km S 08ยฐ E of Babuyan Island (Calayan) (Cagayan)
10.0km deep โข 21km away
024 km N 20ยฐ W of Babuyan Island (Calayan) (Cagayan)
4.0km deep โข 22km away
021 km S 41ยฐ W of Babuyan Island (Calayan) (Cagayan)
2.0km deep โข 24km away
023 km S 46ยฐ W of Babuyan Island (Calayan) (Cagayan)
9.0km deep โข 25km away
BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
9.0km deep โข 25km away
Coordinates
19.5400ยฐN, 121.9150ยฐE
Region
Philippines and SE Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Smith has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Smith's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 100 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
Smith's most recent known eruption was 1924 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Smith is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Cagayan Valley, Philippines, rising to 688 m.
About 1,000 people live within 30 km of Smith. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Smith is located in Cagayan Valley, Philippines, at 19.540ยฐ, 121.915ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 688 m.