Stratovolcano โข Sumatra, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Sinabung erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~25 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.9%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~25y
recurrence
3.170ยฐ, 98.392ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
3.9%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~25y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 25 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
6 eruptions over ~1211 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.8% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2.2โ6.8% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
6 eruptions over ~1211 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,460m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
11 km NW of Berastagi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 14km away
17 km NW of Berastagi, Indonesia
3.7km deep โข 14km away
15 km NW of Berastagi, Indonesia
11.8km deep โข 15km away
5 km ENE of Berastagi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 18km away
14 km NNW of Berastagi, Indonesia
6.0km deep โข 18km away
34 km WNW of Berastagi, Indonesia
128.2km deep โข 24km away
16 km N of Berastagi, Indonesia
8.1km deep โข 24km away
17 km N of Berastagi, Indonesia
11.2km deep โข 25km away
74 km WSW of Binjai, Indonesia
129.9km deep โข 68km away
87 km W of Kabanjahe, Indonesia
89.8km deep โข 77km away
17 km NNE of Parapat, Indonesia
164.7km deep โข 77km away
50 km SSW of Tongging, Indonesia
95.7km deep โข 80km away
Coordinates
3.1700ยฐN, 98.3920ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Sinabung erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Sinabung's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 25 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Sinabung's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Sinabung is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Sumatra, Indonesia, rising to 2,460 m.
About 200,000 people live within 30 km of Sinabung and roughly 3,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Sinabung is located in Sumatra, Indonesia, at 3.170ยฐ, 98.392ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,460 m.