Stratovolcano โข Aleutians, USA
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Shishaldin in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 14.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~7 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
14.1%
1-year
1.2%
30-day
~7y
recurrence
54.755ยฐ, -163.971ยฐ ยท USA ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
14.1%
1-year probability
1.2%
30-day
~7y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 7 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
51 dated eruptions over ~9573 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 10.3โ19.2% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
51 dated eruptions over ~9573 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,857m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
49 km SW of False Pass, Alaska
98.3km deep โข 23km away
75 km WSW of False Pass, Alaska
3.4km deep โข 38km away
66 km SW of False Pass, Alaska
79.6km deep โข 43km away
90 km W of False Pass, Alaska
166.0km deep โข 54km away
58 km S of False Pass, Alaska
67.9km deep โข 58km away
21 km E of False Pass, Alaska
98.3km deep โข 59km away
26 km ENE of False Pass, Alaska
116.9km deep โข 64km away
84 km S of False Pass, Alaska
38.6km deep โข 79km away
58 km WNW of Cold Bay, Alaska
172.2km deep โข 79km away
108 km SSW of False Pass, Alaska
46.8km deep โข 89km away
68 km NNE of Akutan, Alaska
162.9km deep โข 90km away
70 km SE of False Pass, Alaska
61.8km deep โข 90km away
Coordinates
54.7554ยฐN, -163.9711ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Shishaldin in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Shishaldin's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 14.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 7 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Shishaldin's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Shishaldin is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Aleutians, USA, rising to 2,857 m.
About 500 people live within 30 km of Shishaldin and roughly 3,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Shishaldin is located in Aleutians, USA, at 54.755ยฐ, -163.971ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,857 m.