Stratovolcano โข Kyushu, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Shinmoedake erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~23 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2018.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.2%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~23y
recurrence
31.911ยฐ, 130.886ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.2%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~23y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 23 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history (1 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.2โ14% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history (1 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,421m
Elevation
2018
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
13 km N of Kokubu-matsuki, Japan
10.0km deep โข 11km away
12 km NNW of Kajiki, Japan
170.7km deep โข 25km away
15 km SW of Miyazaki, Japan
18.2km deep โข 41km away
19 km SW of Miyazaki, Japan
79.9km deep โข 41km away
6 km SSW of Miyazaki, Japan
63.0km deep โข 49km away
1 km ENE of Saito, Japan
66.1km deep โข 54km away
6 km NNE of Nichinan, Japan
50.5km deep โข 56km away
36 km NE of Hitoyoshi, Japan
126.3km deep โข 58km away
2024 Hyuganada Sea, Japan Earthquake
24.0km deep โข 61km away
13 km ESE of Miyazaki, Japan
47.2km deep โข 63km away
12 km SW of Tarumizu, Japan
23.9km deep โข 63km away
15 km SE of Miyazaki, Japan
39.0km deep โข 64km away
Coordinates
31.9108ยฐN, 130.8856ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Shinmoedake erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Shinmoedake's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 23 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Shinmoedake's most recent known eruption was 2018 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Shinmoedake is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Kyushu, Japan, rising to 1,421 m.
About 500,000 people live within 30 km of Shinmoedake and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Shinmoedake is located in Kyushu, Japan, at 31.911ยฐ, 130.886ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,421 m.