Stratovolcano โข Central Kurils, Russia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Sarychev Peak in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 11.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~8 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2019.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
11.3%
1-year
1%
30-day
~8y
recurrence
48.092ยฐ, 153.200ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
11.3%
1-year probability
1%
30-day
~8y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 8 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
22 dated eruptions over ~256 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.5% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 8.2โ15.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
22 dated eruptions over ~256 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,496m
Elevation
2019
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
Kuril Islands
147.9km deep โข 11km away
Kuril Islands
140.0km deep โข 12km away
Kuril Islands
146.5km deep โข 22km away
Kuril Islands
158.9km deep โข 28km away
Kuril Islands
94.2km deep โข 32km away
Kuril Islands
67.9km deep โข 35km away
Kuril Islands
142.4km deep โข 37km away
Kuril Islands
112.8km deep โข 37km away
Kuril Islands
121.7km deep โข 38km away
Kuril Islands
38.7km deep โข 40km away
Kuril Islands
93.2km deep โข 41km away
Kuril Islands
68.1km deep โข 45km away
Coordinates
48.0920ยฐN, 153.2000ยฐE
Region
Kuril Islands
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Sarychev Peak in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Sarychev Peak's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 11.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 8 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Sarychev Peak's most recent known eruption was 2019 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Sarychev Peak is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Central Kurils, Russia, rising to 1,496 m.
About 500 people live within 30 km of Sarychev Peak and roughly 5,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Sarychev Peak is located in Central Kurils, Russia, at 48.092ยฐ, 153.200ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,496 m.