Complex volcano โข Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Sangeang Api erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~14 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.8%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~14y
recurrence
-8.200ยฐ, 119.070ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.8%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~14y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 14 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
22 dated eruptions over ~510 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.9โ9.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
22 dated eruptions over ~510 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,949m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
49 km NE of Sape, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 19km away
18 km NNE of Sape, Indonesia
146.1km deep โข 25km away
Flores region, Indonesia
17.4km deep โข 27km away
28 km NNE of Bima, Indonesia
169.3km deep โข 28km away
38 km NNW of Komodo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 30km away
34 km NW of Komodo, Indonesia
13.7km deep โข 30km away
Sumbawa region, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 32km away
44 km N of Bima, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 36km away
36 km NNW of Komodo, Indonesia
152.9km deep โข 39km away
15 km ESE of Bima, Indonesia
140.2km deep โข 43km away
33 km N of Bima, Indonesia
177.3km deep โข 44km away
76 km NNE of Bima, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 45km away
Coordinates
-8.2000ยฐN, 119.0700ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Sangeang Api erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Sangeang Api's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 14 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Sangeang Api's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Sangeang Api is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, rising to 1,949 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Sangeang Api and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Sangeang Api is located in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, at -8.200ยฐ, 119.070ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,949 m.