Stratovolcano • Southeast Iceland, Iceland
Unlikely in any given year
Öræfajökull erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~37 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1727.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
2.7%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~37y
recurrence
64.000°, -16.650° · Iceland · 12 nearby earthquakes
2.7%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~37y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 37 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history — the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5. ~0.1% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data — this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 0.8–9.1% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history — the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
2,119m
Elevation
1727
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
111 km W of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 64km away
104 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 67km away
118 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
8.2km deep • 72km away
117 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
7.1km deep • 72km away
108 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 73km away
115 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 73km away
128 km W of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 74km away
107 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 75km away
119 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 75km away
123 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
7.6km deep • 76km away
110 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 76km away
126 km W of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 77km away
Coordinates
64.0000°N, -16.6500°E
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Öræfajökull erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Öræfajökull's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 37 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Öræfajökull's most recent known eruption was 1727 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Öræfajökull is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Southeast Iceland, Iceland, rising to 2,119 m.
About 500 people live within 30 km of Öræfajökull and roughly 10,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Öræfajökull is located in Southeast Iceland, Iceland, at 64.000°, -16.650°, with a summit elevation of 2,119 m.