Stratovolcano • Southern Andes, Chile
Unlikely in any given year
Puyehue-Cordón Caulle erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~11 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2011.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
9%
1-year
0.8%
30-day
~11y
recurrence
-40.590°, -72.117° · Chile · 12 nearby earthquakes
9%
1-year probability
0.8%
30-day
~11y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 11 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
26 dated eruptions over ~7092 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5. ~0.4% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 6.5–12.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5.
26 dated eruptions over ~7092 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
2,236m
Elevation
2011
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
44 km NNW of Villa La Angostura, Argentina
144.3km deep • 27km away
30 km W of Villa La Angostura, Argentina
129.0km deep • 27km away
19 km S of Villa La Angostura, Argentina
166.2km deep • 54km away
11 km S of Río Bueno, Chile
61.1km deep • 72km away
14 km SE of San Martín de los Andes, Argentina
167.6km deep • 84km away
38 km ESE of Panguipulli, Chile
10.0km deep • 85km away
46 km NNW of San Martín de los Andes, Argentina
140.0km deep • 96km away
31 km WNW of Junín de los Andes, Argentina
159.8km deep • 101km away
19 km NNE of Panguipulli, Chile
80.6km deep • 125km away
17 km SE of Pucón, Chile
115.5km deep • 137km away
9 km WSW of Pucón, Chile
107.5km deep • 142km away
15 km ENE of Loncoche, Chile
88.0km deep • 142km away
Coordinates
-40.5900°N, -72.1170°E
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Puyehue-Cordón Caulle erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Puyehue-Cordón Caulle's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 11 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Puyehue-Cordón Caulle's most recent known eruption was 2011 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Puyehue-Cordón Caulle is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Southern Andes, Chile, rising to 2,236 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle and roughly 400,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Puyehue-Cordón Caulle is located in Southern Andes, Chile, at -40.590°, -72.117°, with a summit elevation of 2,236 m.