Stratovolcano โข Central Luzon, Philippines
VEI 6 eruption in 1991 was second largest of 20th century. Triggered by M7.8 earthquake 8 months prior.
Unlikely in any given year
Pinatubo erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~88 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1991.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories. How this is calculated โ
2.1%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~88y
recurrence
15.130ยฐ, 120.350ยฐ ยท Philippines ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
Zambales, Central Luzon ยท Stratovolcano
low confidenceยท 8 stationsยท hazard map โ
๐ No specific action required.
Recently active with no current precursors โ at or below the typical baseline.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Activity level 2/3
b=0.70 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=334
Minimal indicators detected.
Recently active with no current precursors โ at or below the typical baseline.
Activity level 2/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
b = 0.7 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=334
Low b-value (0.70) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
~5 yr since last vs a ~88-yr average (ratio 0.06)
Erupted recently (~5 yr ago vs a ~88-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
One eruption in the last 10 years.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
6 eruptions since 1500 โ ~1 per 88 yr
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
Alert Level 0
No significant unrest โ eruption not expected in the near term.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
0 events within 15 km ยท 0.1/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
Erupted recently (~5 yr ago vs a ~88-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Dacitic stratovolcano/caldera โ infrequent but very large (up to VEI 6)
Typical explosivity โ VEI 6
Detailed instrument readouts
Normal โ no significant unrest
0.70 ยฑ 0.04
Mc 2.2 ยท n=334
Low b-value (0.70) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
859
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
0
<5km deep
0
<15km away
0.1
ev/day
Smithsonian GVP eruption frequency โ about one eruption every ~88 years.
Normal โ no significant unrest reported.
Product of b-value, depth migration, acceleration, triggering & swarm signals.
Erupted recently (~5 yr ago vs a ~88-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โModeled from PHIVOLCS alert level + live seismicity + eruption history. See the Risk Analysis dashboard for all volcanoes side by side.
colossal ยท very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 6
Most eruptions ~VEI 6; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6.
9 dated eruptions over ~9481 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,486m
Elevation
1991
Last Eruption
Stratovolcano
Type
6
Recorded Eruptions (since 1500)
~88y
Avg. Recurrence
1991
Last Eruption
Baseline eruption rate derived from Smithsonian GVP confirmed-eruption frequency. Current eruption probability (incorporating PHIVOLCS alert level and live seismicity) is on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
Dacitic stratovolcano/caldera โ infrequent but very large (up to VEI 6)
Typical explosivity โ VEI 6
Erupted recently (~5 yr ago vs a ~88-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Live risk direction, the full evidence ledger and seismic precursors are on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
021 km S 74ยฐ W of Mabalacat City (Pampanga)
33.0km deep โข 7km away
017 km N 41ยฐ E of San Marcelino (Zambales)
34.0km deep โข 11km away
027 km N 74ยฐ E of Cabangan (Zambales)
32.0km deep โข 12km away
027 km N 86ยฐ W of Mabalacat City (Pampanga)
33.0km deep โข 15km away
025 km N 68ยฐ E of Cabangan (Zambales)
32.0km deep โข 15km away
017 km S 88ยฐ E of Cabangan (Zambales)
33.0km deep โข 15km away
010 km S 53ยฐ W of Mabalacat City (Pampanga)
173.0km deep โข 16km away
019 km N 78ยฐ W of Mabalacat City (Pampanga)
20.0km deep โข 17km away
032 km N 63ยฐ E of Cabangan (Zambales)
30.0km deep โข 18km away
015 km N 74ยฐ E of Cabangan (Zambales)
33.0km deep โข 19km away
018 km N 73ยฐ W of Mabalacat City (Pampanga)
12.0km deep โข 19km away
LUZON, PHILIPPINES
104.0km deep โข 19km away
Coordinates
15.1300ยฐN, 120.3500ยฐE
Region
Philippines and SE Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Pinatubo erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Pinatubo's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 88 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
Pinatubo's most recent known eruption was 1991 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Pinatubo is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Central Luzon, Philippines, rising to 1,486 m.
About 850,000 people live within 30 km of Pinatubo. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Pinatubo is located in Central Luzon, Philippines, at 15.130ยฐ, 120.350ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,486 m.