Stratovolcano โข Alaska Peninsula, USA
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Pavlof in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 25.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2022.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
25.8%
1-year
2.4%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
55.417ยฐ, -161.894ยฐ ยท USA ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
25.8%
1-year probability
2.4%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
48 dated eruptions over ~260 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~1.2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 19.2โ34.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
48 dated eruptions over ~260 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,518m
Elevation
2022
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
55 km SW of Nelson Lagoon, Alaska
165.3km deep โข 27km away
47 km ESE of King Cove, Alaska
105.4km deep โข 55km away
49 km W of Nelson Lagoon, Alaska
191.3km deep โข 67km away
37 km SW of Sand Point, Alaska
65.4km deep โข 69km away
48 km W of Nelson Lagoon, Alaska
169.0km deep โข 73km away
Alaska Peninsula
46.6km deep โข 80km away
75 km SW of Sand Point, Alaska
35.1km deep โข 82km away
75 km ESE of King Cove, Alaska
51.0km deep โข 85km away
78 km ESE of King Cove, Alaska
54.4km deep โข 86km away
26 km ENE of False Pass, Alaska
116.9km deep โข 89km away
79 km SSW of Sand Point, Alaska
35.0km deep โข 91km away
79 km SSW of Sand Point, Alaska
45.6km deep โข 91km away
Coordinates
55.4173ยฐN, -161.8937ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Pavlof in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Pavlof's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 25.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Pavlof's most recent known eruption was 2022 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Pavlof is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Alaska Peninsula, USA, rising to 2,518 m.
About 500 people live within 30 km of Pavlof and roughly 3,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Pavlof is located in Alaska Peninsula, USA, at 55.417ยฐ, -161.894ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,518 m.