Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Papandayan erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~20 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2002.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.9%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~20y
recurrence
-7.320ยฐ, 107.730ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.9%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~20y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 20 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Only 4 recorded eruption(s) over ~230 yr โ likely under-recorded, so the estimate leans partly on the volcano type.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2โ11.8% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
Only 4 recorded eruption(s) over ~230 yr โ likely under-recorded, so the estimate leans partly on the volcano type.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,665m
Elevation
2002
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
24 km ESE of Banjar, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 11km away
20 km ESE of Banjar, Indonesia
120.0km deep โข 16km away
39 km SE of Banjar, Indonesia
67.1km deep โข 19km away
15 km ESE of Banjar, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 20km away
14 km E of Banjar, Indonesia
6.9km deep โข 24km away
9 km W of Paseh, Indonesia
133.8km deep โข 27km away
5 km SW of Banjaran, Indonesia
133.4km deep โข 33km away
35 km S of Banjar, Indonesia
77.3km deep โข 44km away
27 km SSW of Kawalu, Indonesia
107.7km deep โข 50km away
60 km SW of Singaparna, Indonesia
5.9km deep โข 51km away
12 km SSW of Kawalu, Indonesia
90.0km deep โข 53km away
41 km SSW of Banjar, Indonesia
66.0km deep โข 54km away
Coordinates
-7.3200ยฐN, 107.7300ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Papandayan erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Papandayan's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 20 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Papandayan's most recent known eruption was 2002 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Papandayan is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 2,665 m.
About 5,000,000 people live within 30 km of Papandayan and roughly 30,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Papandayan is located in Java, Indonesia, at -7.320ยฐ, 107.730ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,665 m.