Stratovolcano โข Aeolian Islands, Italy
Unlikely in any given year
Panarea erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~21 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2002.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.6%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~21y
recurrence
38.638ยฐ, 15.072ยฐ ยท Italy ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.6%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~21y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 21 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.3โ15.1% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
421m
Elevation
2002
Last Eruption
VEI 0
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
21 km NNE of Malfa, Italy
229.7km deep โข 15km away
31 km ENE of Canneto, Italy
216.5km deep โข 17km away
39 km W of San Nicolรฒ, Italy
188.4km deep โข 28km away
52 km NE of Santa Marina Salina, Italy
219.8km deep โข 35km away
39 km WSW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 62km away
43 km WNW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 63km away
48 km W of Leni, Italy
3.0km deep โข 70km away
47 km W of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 70km away
31 km WSW of Amantea, Italy
204.0km deep โข 74km away
2 km SW of Zambrone, Italy
65.5km deep โข 78km away
62 km WNW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 81km away
55 km WSW of Cittadella del Capo, Italy
19.0km deep โข 88km away
Coordinates
38.6380ยฐN, 15.0720ยฐE
Region
Mediterranean and Western Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Panarea erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Panarea's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 21 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Panarea's most recent known eruption was 2002 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Panarea is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Aeolian Islands, Italy, rising to 421 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Panarea and roughly 400,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Panarea is located in Aeolian Islands, Italy, at 38.638ยฐ, 15.072ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 421 m.