Stratovolcano โข Honshu, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Ontake erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~31 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2014.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.2%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~31y
recurrence
35.893ยฐ, 137.481ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
3.2%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~31y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 31 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
5 eruptions over ~1240 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.8โ5.7% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
5 eruptions over ~1240 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,067m
Elevation
2014
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
31 km ENE of Gero, Japan
10.0km deep โข 9km away
11 km S of Takayama, Japan
260.5km deep โข 26km away
22 km NNW of Iida, Japan
10.0km deep โข 30km away
21 km SW of Toyoshina, Japan
10.0km deep โข 38km away
23 km WSW of Toyoshina, Japan
10.0km deep โข 40km away
18 km WNW of Shiojiri, Japan
10.0km deep โข 40km away
20 km WSW of Toyoshina, Japan
10.0km deep โข 43km away
21 km WSW of Toyoshina, Japan
6.2km deep โข 43km away
19 km WSW of Toyoshina, Japan
2.3km deep โข 43km away
15 km WSW of Toyoshina, Japan
10.0km deep โข 45km away
21 km WSW of Hotaka, Japan
7.8km deep โข 46km away
17 km WSW of Toyoshina, Japan
10.0km deep โข 46km away
Coordinates
35.8933ยฐN, 137.4808ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ontake erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ontake's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 31 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ontake's most recent known eruption was 2014 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ontake is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Honshu, Japan, rising to 3,067 m.
About 150,000 people live within 30 km of Ontake and roughly 5,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ontake is located in Honshu, Japan, at 35.893ยฐ, 137.481ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,067 m.