Shield volcano โข Oregon, USA
Very unlikely near-term
Newberry has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~52 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 690.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
1.9%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~52y
recurrence
43.722ยฐ, -121.229ยฐ ยท USA
1.9%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~52y
Avg. recurrence
background
Risk level
~1 eruption every 52 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a shield volcano prior by how complete the record is.
11 dated eruptions over ~9900 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.4โ2.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
11 dated eruptions over ~9900 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,434m
Elevation
690
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Shield volcano
Type
Coordinates
43.7220ยฐN, -121.2290ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Newberry has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Newberry's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 52 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Newberry's most recent known eruption was 690 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Newberry is classified as active. It is a shield volcano in Oregon, USA, rising to 2,434 m.
About 80,000 people live within 30 km of Newberry and roughly 300,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Newberry is located in Oregon, USA, at 43.722ยฐ, -121.229ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,434 m.