Stratovolcano • Southern Andes, Chile
Unlikely in any given year
Nevados de Chillán erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 9.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~10 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
9.2%
1-year
0.8%
30-day
~10y
recurrence
-36.863°, -71.377° · Chile · 12 nearby earthquakes
9.2%
1-year probability
0.8%
30-day
~10y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 10 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
32 dated eruptions over ~8912 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 6.7–12.6% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
32 dated eruptions over ~8912 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
3,212m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
24 km SE of Coihueco, Chile
10.0km deep • 24km away
36 km NW of Las Ovejas, Argentina
140.5km deep • 36km away
27 km NNW of Las Ovejas, Argentina
156.1km deep • 47km away
60 km ENE of Los Ángeles, Chile
81.1km deep • 60km away
69 km NNW of Las Ovejas, Argentina
128.4km deep • 64km away
68 km NNW of Las Ovejas, Argentina
137.5km deep • 65km away
17 km WSW of Andacollo, Argentina
145.0km deep • 66km away
23 km SE of Parral, Chile
99.0km deep • 66km away
Maule - Bio-Bio border region, Chile
88.7km deep • 77km away
41 km WNW of Barrancas, Argentina
159.0km deep • 93km away
17 km E of Los Ángeles, Chile
83.3km deep • 95km away
14 km SE of Colbún, Chile
98.7km deep • 118km away
Coordinates
-36.8630°N, -71.3770°E
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Nevados de Chillán erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Nevados de Chillán's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 9.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 10 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Nevados de Chillán's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Nevados de Chillán is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Southern Andes, Chile, rising to 3,212 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Nevados de Chillán and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Nevados de Chillán is located in Southern Andes, Chile, at -36.863°, -71.377°, with a summit elevation of 3,212 m.