Stratovolcano โข Davao Region, Philippines
Highest peak in Philippines. No historical eruptions but active solfataras and major geothermal plant. Currently bracketed by two seismic clusters (Oct 2025-Jan 2026).
Very unlikely near-term
Mount Apo has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 0.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~303 years on average. No confirmed eruption is on record.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories. How this is calculated โ
0.8%
1-year
0.1%
30-day
~303y
recurrence
6.987ยฐ, 125.271ยฐ ยท Philippines ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
Davao del Sur, Davao Region ยท Stratovolcano
low confidenceยท 1 stationsยท no hazard map
๐ General awareness sufficient.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Activity level 3/3
b=0.68 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=580
No significant indicators.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
Activity level 3/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
b = 0.68 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=580
Low b-value (0.68) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
Status-based estimate (~1 per 308 yr)
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
Alert Level 0
No significant unrest โ eruption not expected in the near term.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
Recurrence interval not well constrained
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
No eruptions in the last 10 years.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
0 events within 15 km ยท 0.4/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
1 cluster(s); 0 swarm-like
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Detailed instrument readouts
Normal โ no significant unrest
0.68 ยฑ 0.03
Mc 2.2 ยท n=580
Low b-value (0.68) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
859
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
0
<5km deep
0
<15km away
0.4
ev/day
Smithsonian GVP eruption frequency โ about one eruption every ~303 years.
Normal โ no significant unrest reported.
Product of b-value, depth migration, acceleration, triggering & swarm signals.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โModeled from PHIVOLCS alert level + live seismicity + eruption history. See the Risk Analysis dashboard for all volcanoes side by side.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,954m
Elevation
No Record
Last Eruption
Stratovolcano
Type
โ
Recorded Eruptions
~308y
Avg. Recurrence
โ
Last Eruption
Baseline eruption rate derived from Smithsonian GVP confirmed-eruption frequency. Current eruption probability (incorporating PHIVOLCS alert level and live seismicity) is on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
027 km N 06ยฐ W of Santa Cruz (Davao Del Sur)
12.0km deep โข 17km away
020 km N 81ยฐ W of City Of Davao
9.0km deep โข 17km away
004 km N 52ยฐ W of Makilala (Cotabato)
28.0km deep โข 23km away
013 km N 42ยฐ W of Magsaysay (Davao Del Sur)
32.0km deep โข 27km away
022 km S 78ยฐ W of Island Garden City Of Samal (Davao Del Norte)
129.0km deep โข 27km away
027 km N 76ยฐ W of Island Garden City Of Samal (Davao Del Norte)
21.0km deep โข 29km away
021 km N 82ยฐ W of Island Garden City Of Samal (Davao Del Norte)
20.0km deep โข 31km away
026 km S 70ยฐ W of City Of Panabo (Davao Del Norte)
8.0km deep โข 31km away
004 km S 13ยฐ E of Magsaysay (Davao Del Sur)
20.0km deep โข 32km away
015 km N 84ยฐ E of Tulunan (Cotabato)
15.0km deep โข 33km away
MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
6.0km deep โข 33km away
025 km S 76ยฐ W of City Of Panabo (Davao Del Norte)
11.0km deep โข 34km away
Coordinates
6.9875ยฐN, 125.2711ยฐE
Region
Philippines and SE Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Mount Apo has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Mount Apo's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 0.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 303 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
Mount Apo has no confirmed eruption on record in the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program database.
Mount Apo is classified as potentially active. It is a stratovolcano in Davao Region, Philippines, rising to 2,954 m.
About 1,800,000 people live within 30 km of Mount Apo. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Mount Apo is located in Davao Region, Philippines, at 6.987ยฐ, 125.271ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,954 m.