Stratovolcano โข Nicaragua, Nicaragua
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Momotombo in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 15.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~6 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2016.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
15.6%
1-year
1.4%
30-day
~6y
recurrence
12.422ยฐ, -86.539ยฐ ยท Nicaragua ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
15.6%
1-year probability
1.4%
30-day
~6y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 6 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
54 dated eruptions over ~498 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.7% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 11.4โ21.2% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
54 dated eruptions over ~498 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,297m
Elevation
2016
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
17 km NE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
10.0km deep โข 3km away
20 km NNE of Nagarote, Nicaragua
7.6km deep โข 3km away
20 km NE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
10.0km deep โข 6km away
10 km NNE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
217.6km deep โข 10km away
11 km NNE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
10.0km deep โข 11km away
4 km N of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
146.3km deep โข 15km away
6 km SSE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
134.9km deep โข 20km away
7 km S of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
133.9km deep โข 23km away
13 km NW of Ciudad Sandino, Nicaragua
202.9km deep โข 23km away
9 km WNW of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
162.6km deep โข 24km away
Nicaragua
149.6km deep โข 27km away
14 km SE of Nagarote, Nicaragua
173.4km deep โข 30km away
Coordinates
12.4220ยฐN, -86.5390ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Momotombo in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Momotombo's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 15.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 6 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Momotombo's most recent known eruption was 2016 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Momotombo is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, rising to 1,297 m.
About 500,000 people live within 30 km of Momotombo and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Momotombo is located in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, at 12.422ยฐ, -86.539ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,297 m.