Stratovolcano โข Ryukyu Islands, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Kuchinoerabujima erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 8.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~11 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2021.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
8.9%
1-year
0.8%
30-day
~11y
recurrence
30.443ยฐ, 130.218ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
8.9%
1-year probability
0.8%
30-day
~11y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 11 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
31 dated eruptions over ~11540 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.4% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 6.5โ12.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
31 dated eruptions over ~11540 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
657m
Elevation
2021
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
16 km WNW of Nagata, Japan
35.0km deep โข 6km away
34 km W of Nagata, Japan
123.0km deep โข 15km away
5 km N of Koseda, Japan
63.5km deep โข 42km away
45 km NNW of Miyanoura, Japan
114.1km deep โข 45km away
25 km SSW of Yudomari, Japan
57.2km deep โข 47km away
22 km S of Yudomari, Japan
66.4km deep โข 50km away
37 km S of Makurazaki, Japan
148.1km deep โข 55km away
53 km SW of Kurio, Japan
10.0km deep โข 55km away
19 km SSE of Koseda, Japan
36.3km deep โข 55km away
57 km WSW of Kurio, Japan
10.0km deep โข 57km away
57 km SW of Kurio, Japan
9.9km deep โข 63km away
30 km SSE of Makurazaki, Japan
138.3km deep โข 64km away
Coordinates
30.4428ยฐN, 130.2178ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Kuchinoerabujima erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Kuchinoerabujima's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 8.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 11 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Kuchinoerabujima's most recent known eruption was 2021 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Kuchinoerabujima is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Ryukyu Islands, Japan, rising to 657 m.
About 5,000 people live within 30 km of Kuchinoerabujima and roughly 100,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Kuchinoerabujima is located in Ryukyu Islands, Japan, at 30.443ยฐ, 130.218ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 657 m.