Stratovolcano โข Kamchatka, Russia
Unlikely in any given year
Koryaksky erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~31 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2009.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.2%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~31y
recurrence
53.320ยฐ, 158.712ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
3.2%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~31y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 31 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
7 eruptions over ~7059 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.8โ5.7% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
7 eruptions over ~7059 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,456m
Elevation
2009
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
50 km NE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
98.1km deep โข 29km away
59 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
73.3km deep โข 55km away
70 km ENE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
85.7km deep โข 56km away
39 km SE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
77.1km deep โข 58km away
57 km E of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
91.4km deep โข 59km away
56 km E of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
70.9km deep โข 59km away
56 km E of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
73.7km deep โข 59km away
61 km E of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
35.0km deep โข 61km away
46 km ESE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
80.2km deep โข 61km away
59 km E of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
73.9km deep โข 62km away
47 km ESE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
73.8km deep โข 62km away
43 km SE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
79.2km deep โข 63km away
Coordinates
53.3200ยฐN, 158.7120ยฐE
Region
Kamchatka and Mainland Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Koryaksky erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Koryaksky's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 31 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Koryaksky's most recent known eruption was 2009 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Koryaksky is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Kamchatka, Russia, rising to 3,456 m.
About 200,000 people live within 30 km of Koryaksky and roughly 300,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Koryaksky is located in Kamchatka, Russia, at 53.320ยฐ, 158.712ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,456 m.