Complex volcano โข Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Kelimutu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~14 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1968.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.8%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~14y
recurrence
-8.770ยฐ, 121.820ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.8%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~14y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 14 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
Only 3 recorded eruption(s) over ~103 yr โ likely under-recorded, so the estimate leans partly on the volcano type.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2.8โ16.1% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
Only 3 recorded eruption(s) over ~103 yr โ likely under-recorded, so the estimate leans partly on the volcano type.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,639m
Elevation
1968
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
31 km SSW of Maumere, Indonesia
105.5km deep โข 28km away
26 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
183.4km deep โข 30km away
42 km N of Ende, Indonesia
181.6km deep โข 37km away
34 km WNW of Maumere, Indonesia
205.1km deep โข 38km away
45 km N of Ende, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 44km away
15 km SSE of Maumere, Indonesia
130.1km deep โข 51km away
52 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 55km away
55 km SSE of Ende, Indonesia
85.3km deep โข 58km away
58 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 58km away
Flores region, Indonesia
173.0km deep โข 60km away
58 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
183.3km deep โข 60km away
67 km N of Ende, Indonesia
33.0km deep โข 63km away
Coordinates
-8.7700ยฐN, 121.8200ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Kelimutu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Kelimutu's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 14 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Kelimutu's most recent known eruption was 1968 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Kelimutu is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, rising to 1,639 m.
About 200,000 people live within 30 km of Kelimutu and roughly 600,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Kelimutu is located in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, at -8.770ยฐ, 121.820ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,639 m.