Stratovolcano โข Sangihe Islands, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Karangetang in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 26.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
26.4%
1-year
2.5%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
2.781ยฐ, 125.408ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
26.4%
1-year probability
2.5%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
62 dated eruptions over ~348 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 19.7โ34.9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
62 dated eruptions over ~348 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,784m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
159 km NNE of Bitung, Indonesia
138.6km deep โข 24km away
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
40.0km deep โข 37km away
179 km NNE of Bitung, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 43km away
162 km NE of Laikit, Laikit II (Dimembe), Indonesia
96.1km deep โข 44km away
198 km NNE of Laikit, Laikit II (Dimembe), Indonesia
178.1km deep โข 48km away
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
18.0km deep โข 51km away
204 km NNE of Bitung, Indonesia
174.1km deep โข 54km away
183 km NNE of Bitung, Indonesia
131.2km deep โข 55km away
196 km NNE of Bitung, Indonesia
153.2km deep โข 55km away
188 km NNE of Laikit, Laikit II (Dimembe), Indonesia
56.0km deep โข 58km away
202 km NNE of Bitung, Indonesia
138.5km deep โข 59km away
205 km NNE of Bitung, Indonesia
149.4km deep โข 60km away
Coordinates
2.7810ยฐN, 125.4080ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Karangetang in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Karangetang's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 26.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Karangetang's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Karangetang is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Sangihe Islands, Indonesia, rising to 1,784 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Karangetang and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Karangetang is located in Sangihe Islands, Indonesia, at 2.781ยฐ, 125.408ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,784 m.