Stratovolcano โข Halmahera, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Ibu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~15 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.3%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~15y
recurrence
1.488ยฐ, 127.630ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.3%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~15y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 15 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Only 5 recorded eruption(s) over ~115 yr โ likely under-recorded, so the estimate leans partly on the volcano type.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2.6โ15% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
Only 5 recorded eruption(s) over ~115 yr โ likely under-recorded, so the estimate leans partly on the volcano type.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,325m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
53 km SW of Tobelo, Indonesia
174.0km deep โข 8km away
37 km SW of Tobelo, Indonesia
9.3km deep โข 14km away
35 km SW of Tobelo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 16km away
33 km SW of Tobelo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 18km away
31 km WSW of Tobelo, Indonesia
8.1km deep โข 18km away
31 km WSW of Tobelo, Indonesia
7.7km deep โข 18km away
67 km N of Ternate, Indonesia
74.3km deep โข 21km away
58 km SW of Tobelo, Indonesia
135.1km deep โข 21km away
33 km SSW of Tobelo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 25km away
33 km SSW of Tobelo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 28km away
75 km WSW of Tobelo, Indonesia
141.5km deep โข 33km away
71 km W of Tobelo, Indonesia
133.6km deep โข 35km away
Coordinates
1.4880ยฐN, 127.6300ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ibu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ibu's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 15 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ibu's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ibu is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Halmahera, Indonesia, rising to 1,325 m.
About 30,000 people live within 30 km of Ibu and roughly 250,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ibu is located in Halmahera, Indonesia, at 1.488ยฐ, 127.630ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,325 m.