Submarine volcano โข Sicily Channel, Italy
Unlikely in any given year
Ferdinandea erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~49 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1863.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
2%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~49y
recurrence
37.100ยฐ, 12.700ยฐ ยท Italy ยท 1 nearby earthquakes
2%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~49y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 49 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a submarine volcano prior by how complete the record is.
2 eruptions over ~2000 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.1โ3.6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท moderate explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
2 eruptions over ~2000 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
-6m
Elevation
1863
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Submarine volcano
Type
46 km WNW of Favignana, Italy
10.0km deep โข 138km away
Coordinates
37.1000ยฐN, 12.7000ยฐE
Region
Mediterranean and Western Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ferdinandea erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ferdinandea's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 49 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ferdinandea's most recent known eruption was 1863 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ferdinandea is classified as active. It is a submarine volcano in Sicily Channel, Italy, rising to -6 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Ferdinandea and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ferdinandea is located in Sicily Channel, Italy, at 37.100ยฐ, 12.700ยฐ, with a summit elevation of -6 m.