Complex volcano โข Java, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Dieng erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~21 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2021.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.7%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~21y
recurrence
-7.200ยฐ, 109.920ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.7%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~21y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 21 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
11 dated eruptions over ~1741 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.4โ6.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
11 dated eruptions over ~1741 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,565m
Elevation
2021
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
24 km SSE of Buaran, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 30km away
7 km ENE of Pekalongan, Indonesia
11.1km deep โข 43km away
20 km NNE of Pemalang, Indonesia
241.9km deep โข 72km away
10 km E of Sewon, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 94km away
18 km S of Wedi, Indonesia
149.9km deep โข 107km away
21 km SSE of Cilacap, Indonesia
100.8km deep โข 118km away
66 km SSE of Kroya, Indonesia
89.4km deep โข 127km away
33 km SSE of Cilacap, Indonesia
83.4km deep โข 128km away
42 km SW of Kroya, Indonesia
103.8km deep โข 131km away
43 km SSE of Cilacap, Indonesia
89.3km deep โข 131km away
50 km S of Bambanglipuro, Indonesia
95.4km deep โข 137km away
55 km SSW of Kroya, Indonesia
68.2km deep โข 141km away
Coordinates
-7.2000ยฐN, 109.9200ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Dieng erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Dieng's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 21 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Dieng's most recent known eruption was 2021 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Dieng is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 2,565 m.
About 2,000,000 people live within 30 km of Dieng and roughly 15,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Dieng is located in Java, Indonesia, at -7.200ยฐ, 109.920ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,565 m.