Stratovolcano โข Southern Andes, Chile
Unlikely in any given year
Copahue erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~15 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2020.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.5%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~15y
recurrence
-37.856ยฐ, -71.170ยฐ ยท Chile ยท 11 nearby earthquakes
6.5%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~15y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 15 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
22 dated eruptions over ~8844 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.7โ9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
22 dated eruptions over ~8844 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,997m
Elevation
2020
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
17 km WSW of Andacollo, Argentina
145.0km deep โข 72km away
60 km ENE of Los รngeles, Chile
81.1km deep โข 73km away
19 km SE of Loncopuรฉ, Argentina
186.0km deep โข 74km away
17 km E of Los รngeles, Chile
83.3km deep โข 98km away
34 km SE of Chos Malal, Argentina
212.4km deep โข 107km away
27 km NNW of Las Ovejas, Argentina
156.1km deep โข 125km away
36 km NW of Las Ovejas, Argentina
140.5km deep โข 126km away
24 km SE of Coihueco, Chile
10.0km deep โข 128km away
34 km NNE of Pucรณn, Chile
119.8km deep โข 139km away
5 km W of Traiguรฉn, Chile
67.6km deep โข 144km away
41 km WNW of Barrancas, Argentina
159.0km deep โข 148km away
Coordinates
-37.8560ยฐN, -71.1700ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Copahue erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Copahue's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 15 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Copahue's most recent known eruption was 2020 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Copahue is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Southern Andes, Chile, rising to 2,997 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Copahue and roughly 300,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Copahue is located in Southern Andes, Chile, at -37.856ยฐ, -71.170ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,997 m.