Cinder cone โข Nicaragua, Nicaragua
Unlikely in any given year
Cerro Negro erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~16 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1999.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.1%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~16y
recurrence
12.506ยฐ, -86.702ยฐ ยท Nicaragua ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.1%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~16y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 16 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a cinder cone prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.8โ19.7% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
728m
Elevation
1999
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Cinder cone
Type
11 km NNE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
10.0km deep โข 10km away
10 km NNE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
217.6km deep โข 11km away
4 km N of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
146.3km deep โข 14km away
9 km WNW of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
162.6km deep โข 15km away
Nicaragua
149.6km deep โข 16km away
20 km NE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
10.0km deep โข 17km away
17 km NE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
10.0km deep โข 18km away
2 km NNW of Telica, Nicaragua
167.0km deep โข 19km away
8 km SE of Leรณn, Nicaragua
145.8km deep โข 20km away
4 km NW of Telica, Nicaragua
172.1km deep โข 21km away
20 km NNE of Nagarote, Nicaragua
7.6km deep โข 22km away
6 km SSE of La Paz Centro, Nicaragua
134.9km deep โข 25km away
Coordinates
12.5060ยฐN, -86.7020ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Cerro Negro erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Cerro Negro's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 16 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Cerro Negro's most recent known eruption was 1999 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Cerro Negro is classified as active. It is a cinder cone in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, rising to 728 m.
About 400,000 people live within 30 km of Cerro Negro and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Cerro Negro is located in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, at 12.506ยฐ, -86.702ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 728 m.