Stratovolcano โข Guatemala, Guatemala
Unlikely in any given year
Agua erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~37 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was -840.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
2.7%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~37y
recurrence
14.465ยฐ, -90.743ยฐ ยท Guatemala ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
2.7%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~37y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 37 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 0.8โ9% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,760m
Elevation
-840
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
6 km SW of Santa Marรญa de Jesรบs, Guatemala
5.4km deep โข 2km away
5 km NW of Palรญn, Guatemala
79.1km deep โข 3km away
4 km WSW of Amatitlรกn, Guatemala
10.0km deep โข 7km away
1 km SSW of Antigua Guatemala, Guatemala
179.1km deep โข 9km away
3 km SSW of Amatitlรกn, Guatemala
10.0km deep โข 10km away
0 km SW of Amatitlรกn, Guatemala
183.6km deep โข 11km away
2 km S of Petapa, Guatemala
202.2km deep โข 20km away
2 km WSW of Villa Canales, Guatemala
188.5km deep โข 21km away
4 km ENE of Acatenango, Guatemala
178.9km deep โข 21km away
2 km NE of San Andrรฉs Itzapa, Guatemala
195.7km deep โข 21km away
9 km ESE of San Vicente Pacaya, Guatemala
188.2km deep โข 22km away
Guatemala
211.8km deep โข 23km away
Coordinates
14.4650ยฐN, -90.7430ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Agua erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Agua's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 37 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Agua's most recent known eruption was -840 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Agua is classified as potentially active. It is a stratovolcano in Guatemala, Guatemala, rising to 3,760 m.
About 3,000,000 people live within 30 km of Agua and roughly 5,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Agua is located in Guatemala, Guatemala, at 14.465ยฐ, -90.743ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,760 m.